Study on the Method of Determining Accident Probability Based on Failure for Missile System

While the rapid development of various types of missiles, the safety has also become an important issue. The missile system consists of a large number of dangerous components, while the environmental conditions in the typical mission profile are complicated. Accidents caused by their own faults also still occur. These faults not only affect the function of the missile, but also cause enormous personnel casualties and economic losses. Therefor in view of the above problems, based on the analysis of missile system structure and fault information, a calculation model of missile system accident probability is established and a quantitative calculation method of missile accident probability under typical fault condition is proposed, which effectively provided theory support of safety analysis for the missile system PHM.