Spinning Reserve Assessment in Multiarea Systems via Monte Carlo Simulation and CE Method

The operating reserve can be allocated to specific areas of a power system, usually observing economic, operational, and geographical criteria of the primary energy resources. The impact of the reserve distribution policy, in terms of adequacy and safety, can be measured through the assessment of reliability risks. This paper presents a new method to evaluate the short-term risk indices in systems with multiple areas, considering the limitations of capacity and failures in the transmission system. These risk indices capture the uncertainties associated with the probability of not meeting the expected demand and are estimated for each area using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) techniques via the Cross-Entropy (CE) Method, where the corresponding parameters are optimally distorted. The proposed method is tested with the IEEE RTS-79 system and applied in a configuration of the Brazilian power system with full representation of the transmission network of the North and Northeast regions.