An Investigation of Potential Intermittency Induced Outage Modes for Wind Generation

In a deterministic contingency analysis (DCA), renewable generation such as wind is modeled similar to a conventional generator. In the current practices of a probabilistic contingency analysis (PCA), the outage parameters for a renewable generator reflect only failures of its parts. Intermittency due to wind speed changes or cloud cover may cause renewable generation to ramp up or down within a short time period and, after the transient is finished, stay at a certain generation level before a new ramp starts. A fast ramp-down transient can last for some time and thus, have an effect similar to a failure or de-rated generation of a conventional generator. This paper investigates potential outage modes that are induced by the intermittency of renewable generation, as well as the modeling and parameterization of such outage modes in the PCA framework. Historical time-series wind generation data are used in this study to extract different types of transients and perform statistical analyses to obtain input data such that the intermittency induced outages (II'Os) can be included in PCA.