Optimal Detection and Error Exponents for Hidden Semi-Markov Models

We study detection of random signals corrupted by noise that over time switch their values (states) between a finite set of possible values, where the switchings occur at unknown points in time. We model such signals as hidden semi-Markov signals, which generalize classical Markov chains by introducing explicit (possibly nongeometric) distribution for the time spent in each state. Assuming two possible signal states and Gaussian noise, we derive optimal likelihood ratio test and show that it has a computationally tractable form of a matrix product, with the number of matrices involved in the product being the number of process observations. The product matrices are independent and identically distributed, constructed by a simple measurement modulation of the sparse semi-Markov model transition matrix that we define in the paper. Using this result, we show that the Neyman–Pearson error exponent is equal to the top Lyapunov exponent for the corresponding random matrices. Using theory of large deviations, we derive a lower bound on the error exponent. Finally, we show that this bound is tight by means of numerical simulations.