Projecting solar photovoltaic efficiencies from lab to market

The future is uncertain and forecasting it is difficult. Yet to implement energy policies aimed at sustainable development, it is imperative to determine future energy scenarios. This requires forecasting the development of all relevant generation technologies, including the conversion efficiency of solar photovoltaics. Using historical data, a proven development formula and data on the lag between lab and market, efficiency projections up to 2050 are made for c-Si, CdTe, CIGS, 3- and 4 junction, perovskite, and quantum dot solar cells. The projected efficiencies of the first three, older technologies do not change significantly. The last four, newer technologies could make great leaps in efficiency and increase their market potential, if R&D efforts continue.