Probabilistic impact of the connection of a new DG unit in a power system subject to active network management

Security and reliability are major concerns for future power systems with distributed generation (DG) since the aggregated effect of DG units can lead to more line congestions and voltage problems. Active Network Management (ANM) enables real-time supervision and control of the DG units, by curtailing their excess of production in case of any congestion(s). In this paper, a method, based on an importance sampling scheme systematically targeting electrically challenging scenarios, is given to assess the curtailment risk associated to DG unit connections to the grid. It simultaneously resorts to correlated sampling in order to estimate the risk due to a “perturbed” situation, i.e. with a new DG unit connection. This significantly reduces the computation time of the risk indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a test power grid.