Stochastic tarot® model: Stocastic economic market model for risk evaluation of a regulated electricity distribution company

This document proposes the improvement of an economic model to evaluate the performance of electricity distribution companies considering the inherent risks of the sector. Through scenarios, the model proposes a stochastic evaluation of the variations in the expenditures made by the electric companies, such as operational costs of management, operation and maintenance, as well as the uncertainties associated to the consumer market model. Such variations can be, for example, consequences imposed by economic issues in the national scenario or due to environmental changes. As a result, the model enables the analysis of the economic risk of the company and the socioeconomic well-being produced by the energy distribution activity.