Electricity load forecasting using fuzzy logic: Short term load forecasting factoring weather parameter

Electrical energy demand of an area depends on many factors like population, regional development, weather, electricity price, industrialization etc. Weather plays an important role in estimating the total demand met to a greater degree of accuracy. Accuracy in the forecast helps the system operator to optimize the generation and to keep suitable reserves in view of any contingency. The control area load has only a part of it that is susceptible to the weather, mostly the load for household purposes, while others are independent of the weather. Short term load forecast will not assume the contribution of agricultural load which is season dependent and thus is assumed to be constant in the span of few days. This paper aims at developing a model using fuzzy logic to have the weather and temperature to forecast the future load on a short term basis.