Decision support tool for Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) supply chain policies

In this paper, we describe the development of a decision support tool to assist the Division of Strategic National Stockpile (DSNS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with effectively responding to future public health emergencies. The DSNS is responsible for managing the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), which is the nation's largest inventory of medical supplies to utilize during a disaster. In the case of a large scale public health emergency, syringes and needles are needed in mass quantities, hence creating excess demand and thus requiring needles and syringes to be removed from the commercial supply chain. Consequently, there is a need to minimize the time to recovery and degree of degradation for the commercial supply chain. The approach focuses on developing a decision support tool through the use of an Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and a disaster demand forecast algorithm. The inputs of the tool include factors related to the disaster scenario as well as various policy options. The decision support tool will allow the DSNS to understand how designated factors and policies affect the effectiveness of the response. The policy options will be evaluated in terms of their impact on the recovery time for the commercial supply chain to resume routine patterns, as well as degree of degradation, or the amount of delay and backup over the course of the disaster timeframe.