A performability model for the BRT system

Large cities have increasing mobility problems due to the large number of vehicles on the streets, which results in traffic jams and thus a waste of time and money. An alternative to improve traffic is to prioritize the public transportation system. Several metropolises around the world are adopting Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems since they present compelling results considering the cost-benefit perspective. Evaluating metrics such as performance, dependability, and performability, aids in planning, monitoring, and optimizing BRT systems. This paper presents hierarchical models, using CTMC modeling techniques, to assess metrics such as performance and performability. Results show that these models pointed to the peak intervals that are more likely to arrive at the destination in a shorter time, in addition to showing the probability of the vehicle being affected by the failure at each interval. It was also possible to establish bases for the replication of the model in different scenarios to enable new comparative studies.