Multi-generation diffusion of technology

In the era of demand-driven technology, the study of diffusion processes of high-technology products becomes crucial. The accelerated technological advancements and intergeneration substitutions illustrate the market of these innovations. In the past, attempts have been made to forecast the market growth of product generations meticulously. These studies have considered the diffusion parameters to be static; however, they are implausible to remain constant throughout the the product lifecycle and may experience considerable changes. To understand this phenomenon, the proposed diffusion model deals with the change-point technique in the multi-generation framework. Change-point is defined as a time instant where the growth rate in the diffusion process experiences a change due to varying market environment in which an innovation is placed. The main aim of the reseach is to develop an approach for analyzing the substitution effect among product generations when there exists change-points. Moreover, to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the constructed model, it is fitted to the sales data of DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) industry.