Failure probability estimation of transmission lines during typhoon based on tropical cyclone wind model and component vulnerability model

Typhoons have significant impacts on power transmission lines along coastlines. To improve the power system resilience and minimize economic losses, this paper develops a new method considering the spatial and temporal impact of typhoon, to evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines, based on a tropical cyclone (TC) wind model and a component vulnerability model. The model of TC wind depicts the wind field within the last closed isobar. The component vulnerability model is a fragility curve of transmission lines, which expresses the failure probability using the effective speed, is employed to connect the risk of failure with the typhoon situation. In addition, the Monte-Carlo method is applied to calculate the final breakdown probability of transmission lines. The proposed method is utilized to evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines in China during typhoon Vicente based on a numerical example, and the numerical results verify the presented method is effective.