A Vocabulary for Growth: Topic Modeling of Content Popularity Evolution | IEEE Journals & Magazine | IEEE Xplore

A Vocabulary for Growth: Topic Modeling of Content Popularity Evolution


Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel method to predict the long-term popularity of user-generated content (UGC). At first, the method clusters the dynamics of UGC popularity...Show More

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel method to predict the long-term popularity of user-generated content (UGC). At first, the method clusters the dynamics of UGC popularity into a vocabulary of growth in popularity (sequence) by using a mixture model. Eventually, the method assigns to each sequence a topic model to describe the dynamics of the sequence in a compact way. We then use this topic model to identify similar patterns of growth in popularity of newly observed UGC. The proposed method has two key features: First, it considers the historical dynamics of the UGC popularity, and second it provides long-term popularity prediction. Results on the real dataset of UGC show that the proposed method is flexible, and able to accurately forecast the complete growth in popularity of a given UGC.
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Multimedia ( Volume: 20, Issue: 10, October 2018)
Page(s): 2683 - 2692
Date of Publication: 01 March 2018

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