Performance of prediction models on reentry time prediction of CZ-2C rocket body

An accurate estimation of the reentry time of a decaying near-Earth object is important for hazard assessment as well as for mitigation strategies. Models are important in the space scientific community to predict an accurate reentry time. In this paper three novel models namely Response Surface Method with genetic algorithm, Optimization with Satellite Tool Kit and Lifetime optimization with Satellite Tool Kit are extensively discussed. These models will predict the reentry time of decaying space objects from low-Earth-orbit (eccentricity < 0.2) through an optimization technique. Each of these models is unique in methodology and objective function. Finally the usefulness of the presented models is demonstrated by presenting reentry prediction of recently decayed space object CZ-2C rocket body. The paper compares the results obtained from these models with the observed re-entry time.