Specific reliability worth assessment and approach of a power transmission expansion plan for Nigeria

This paper presents reliability worth of a probabilistic expansion plan proposal for Nigeria's central transmission grid. An analytical algorithm involving state-of-art indices for measuring grid capacity expansion plans was adapted to explore the probabilistic reliability worth of the test expansion plan. These indices included Expected Duration of Load Curtailment (EDLC), Expected Frequency of Load Curtailment (EFLC) and Average duration of load curtailment (ADLC). These indices utilize probability of load curtailments (PLC), which are derived from historical unavailability and frequency. Using these indicators, the reliability worth of the test plan is established. Based on the obtained effectiveness of the applied approach, the algorithm is recommended for prospective expansion models for Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan transmission grids.