Method for reliability analysis of distribution grid communications using PRMs-Monte Carlo methods

This paper presents a method to perform reliability analysis of communication systems for distribution grids. The method uses probabilistic relational models to indicate the probabilistic dependencies between the components that form the communication system and it is implemented by Monte Carlo methods. This method can be used for performing reliability predictions of simulated communication systems and for evaluating the reliability of real systems. The paper contains a case study in which the proposed method is applied to evaluate the reliability of the communication systems that are required for monitoring the network components at low voltage levels using the smart metering infrastructure. This case study is taken from the EU FP7 DISCERN project. Finally, the results are presented in a quantitative way, showing the individual reliability of each component and the combined reliability of the entire system.