An impact-increment based Monte Carlo simulation reliability assessment approach for transmission systems

This paper proposes an impact-increment based Monte Carlo simulation (IIMCS) reliability assessment approach, specially designed for transmission systems. First, the impact-increment based formula of reliability indices is deduced by partially transferring the impact of higher order contingencies to the corresponding lower order ones. Then this formula is transformed into a new formation to adapt to the Monte Carlo sampling process, and IIMCS approach is proposed accordingly. Moreover, a reduction technique is proposed to decrease the number of higher order contingencies without decreasing the accuracy. Consequently, the computational performance is effectively improved by the proposed approach. Case study is performed on the IEEE 300-bus test system. Results indicate that the proposed method is more efficient than traditional Monte Carlo simulation in large scale transmission systems. Also, the efficiency can be controlled by modifying the preset parameters to adapt to different scenarios.