Short term forecast for electri vehicles integration in Cuenca — Ecuador

In Ecuador, the transport sector represent 49% of energy consumption. Being the major consumer category in the country, all primary energy comes from petroleum products, unfortunately, the country must import it, in the other hand pollution produced by vehicles is dispersed. National government proposes to reduce dependency on petroleum for electrical energy. The process of technology substitution has been proposed seven years ago and are in the national guideline: “Transformation of the Ecuadorian Productive Matrix”. In short term, new hydroelectric plants will start to produce energy, doubling installed power, in addition transmission and distribution networks have been repowered. Considering above integration of electric vehicles is the logical alternative to use on the hand energy instead oil products. This paper presents a short term forecast for the amount of electric vehicles that can be incorporate in Cuenca-Ecuador market, for developing this work authors uses historical data and by means of Durbin-Watson method forecast the amount of EV that penetrates in the market. This information will be used in future distribution network impact analysis.