Dynamic simulation of electricity supply and demand for industry sector in East Java

Electricity is a main need for industrial sector to run it self. It is very important to know the quantity of electricity demand in the future. It could be managed to be as efficient as possible and obtain advantage from it. This research develops electricity model to estimates electricity demand growth on industrial sector in East Java using dynamic simulation approach. Dynamic simulation is employed to explore dynamic behavior of the existing and future electricity demand based on three scenarios. First scenario is normal GDP growth condition or most likely model, second scenario is increased 6% GDP growth per year or optimist model, and third scenario is decreased 6% GDP growth per year or pessimistic model. Dynamic simulation will be combined with econometric method to find the GDP and electricity demand relation in order to forecast electricity demand. The dynamic simulation forecast of electricity demand has a less error than DKL 3.2 method, since econometric method separates several types of industry GDP to forecast electricity demand per tariff whereas DKL 3.2 method only utilizes total GDP to forecast all tariff of electricity demand. The result of this research can be used as guidance for planning the industrial sector electricity supply in East Java. Furthermore, this research can be used to develop a flexible scenario for further electricity forecasting.