A branch model simulation for express logistics service system evaluation under online shopping

Under Online shopping environment, express logistics service evaluation system was established based on logistics services theory and Dynamics System Theory Through the analysis of the process of express logistics service. For this system and one main variable “Logistics Services Quality”, their causal relationship was analyzed. Then the system dynamics branch model of a subsidiary variable “timely delivery rate” from the main variable was established. And the model is proved correctly by the dimensionless testing, the sensitivity testing and the extreme conditions testing. On this basis, the data of the four courier companies including SHENTONG EXPRESS (STO), YUANTONG EXPRESS (YTO), ZHONGTONG EXPRESS (ZTO) and YUNDA EXPRESS (YUNDA) were applied to the simulation software Vensim in order to confirm the effectiveness of the simulation Branch Model and to obtain courier companies rankings based on the subsidiary variable, which will provide new methods of express logistics service assessment.