Prediction of electric vehicle market based on market segmentation and regional gradient development

To ensure the healthy development of the electric car market, and establish a development strategy scientifically and reasonably, we need to carry out a more accurate prediction for the future of the EV market. Based on the characteristics of the regional gradient development in a long stage and public sector taking the lead of the EV market, the paper proposes a model of EVs considering the market segmentation and regional gradient development and utilizing grey theory. The quantitative analysis and prospect of EV market scale and structure in China in the medium and long term are presented. The results show that by 2020 Chinese EV ownership will reach the national planning objectives of 5 million, and by 2030 will be more than 50 million. Additionally, it will reflect a “substituting electricity for oil” benefit to ease energy and environment pressures.