Probabilistic analysis of electric vehicle insertion on distribution transformer load curve

The Electric Vehicles (EVs) introduction into the current electric power system means a transition that must be sustained by strategic support processes beyond planning policies. On this basis, in order to qualify and quantify the impact of EV battery charging on a distribution system, is proposed a probabilistic analysis through Monte Carlo method to formulate a transformer load curve. The basis scenario, without comprising EV charging, is estimated based on grid characteristics. The estimation of consumer's average daily distance driven and average grid connection time are used to formulate the EV charging scenario through two charging strategies: economic and dumb charging. While the first is based on time of use tariff, motivating the charging at low tariff charges, the second is based on driver's usual trip recurrence time. Nevertheless, the penetration level supported by the current system regarding to distribution transformer loading is analyzed.