Fault attribution in ambiguous events

If one starts decision or risk analysis from the position of some negative event and then works to the present situation, it is possible to gain insight on how to better distribute resources. By combing research in the psychology of causality and network analysis the decision analyst has the added ability to determine the most probable location in a system that will receive fault if a ambiguous failure occurs. It has been shown in numerous studies that fault attribution generally follows the most direct path to the critical event. In other words, given a failure in an ambiguous situation, if two events are necessary but neither is sufficient, then the event that is going to garner the majority of fault will be the event that has the fewest possible alternative futures (assuming equal base rate probabilities).