Comparison of precipitation forecasts from NOAA's high resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model with polarimetric radar observations in the San Francisco Bay Area

The San Francisco Bay Area is home to over 7 million people, the fifth largest population center in the United States. This region also supports one of the most prosperous economies in the U.S. A recent report by the State of California's Department of Water Resources has emphasized that the Bay Area is at risk of catastrophic flooding [1]. Monitoring heavy rainfall events and mitigation of their associated negative impacts are critical for protecting life and property in this region. To this end, accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and forecast (QPF) are required to provide forecasters with sufficient understanding of rapidly changing weather conditions, and allow them to issue timely watches and warnings.