The German foresight study '98 on the global development of science and technology

Summary form only given. The German foresight study on the global development of science and technology was published in 1998 by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the Federal German Ministry for Education, Research, Science and Technology (BMBF). The study makes use of the Delphi method with a time horizon of 30 years, and is conducted in cooperation with the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP). Delphi is pragmatically defined as communication process among experts in two or more so called rounds; starting from the second round, the experts receive a feedback on the results of previous rounds. Thus, it can be examined if there is consensus-or not. The anonymity of using a questionnaire allows the experts to change their minds or stick to their opinions without losing face. In most cases, this procedure causes a consensus finding process between the first and the following rounds. The German Delphi process is organized similarly to the Japanese, which has the longest experience with this method. According to the Delphi procedure, the experts were asked to assess future developments in science and technology. The topics were formulated as visionary statements, and the experts had to estimate the time of realization, the importance for the economy, the environment, society, the enlargement of human knowledge, and for work and employment. They were also asked to assess which country has the highest R&D level, which are the future problems, and what measures have to be taken.