A time series approach for risk forecasting of individual stocks in the new three board market

Time-series analysis is an important topic that has attracted huge interest in financial and economic analysis domain. In this paper, a three-phase time series approach is proposed to predict the stock price distribution in New Three-Board market. First of all, the close price time series were performed by the differential pre-processing to get the stock price change percent time series. Then the pre-processed time series were tested for stationarity. Finally, we use the time series analysis method to predict the probability of future change percent based on the historical probability distribution curve. Empirical analysis shows that our method can effectively prevent the risk of individual stocks in China New Three-Board market.