Safety Assessment of the Regional Warmia and Mazury Road Network Using Time-Series Analysis

Warmia and Mazury still belongs to the areas with the smallest transport accessibility in Europe. Unsatisfactory state of road infrastructure is a major barrier to the development of the regional economy, impacting negatively on the life conditions of the population. Also in terms of road safety Warmia and Mazury is one of the most endangered regions in Poland. The Police statistics show that beside a high pedestrian risk observed in the capital of the region the threat occurs also at the rural area. This indicates the growing role of speed and unforgiving roadside as a cause of accidents. In this article analysis of road safety trends together with short term forecasts of possible future changes are presented based on time series modeling techniques. The results may serve as a tool of road safety management at the regional level.