A Mathematical Approach to Conflict Resolution in the Arctic Region

The Arctic region is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The dramatic melting of Arctic ice has several negative consequences for the whole ecosystem as well as for a way of life of native people but it also creates new opportunities for the region. First, it opens up potential for exploitation of large deposits of natural resources such oil and gas. Second, it shrinks Arctic shipping routes which offer significant economic savings for many countries. These benefits has already attracted many countries, both Arctic and non-Arctic, thus resulting in potential conflict of interests. In our paper we present a mathematical approach to the problem of conflict resolution in the Arctic. First, we propose an approach how the level of interest in each part of the region should be evaluated with respect to main resources - oil, gas, fish and maritime routes. Second, we present several models of areas allocation to resolve the problem of conflict resolution. As a result, we applied several scenarios of areas allocation, evaluated their efficiency based on the total satisfaction level and identified conflict zones in the Arctic.