Introduction

This introduction provides an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book deals with advances in forecasting technologies in electric power system applications. In addition to power system load forecasting, it discusses electricity price forecasting and a storm‐caused outage duration forecasting. The book offers sophisticated treatments of load forecasting, while deals with innovative approaches to price forecasting. It describes five methods: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling; periodic AR modeling; exponential smoothing for double seasonality; a recently proposed alternative exponential smoothing formulation; and a method based on principal component analysis (PCA) of the daily load profiles. The book summarizes a set of stochastic process models that can be used for electricity prices according to the purpose of modeling. It also describes commonly used continuous time stochastic models such as Brownian motion, mean reversion process, geometric Brownian motion, geometric mean reversion process.