Modeling the impact of energy efficiency in the electricity consumption of the Brazilian tertiary sector

Studies of the impact of energy efficiency on the electricity consumption of the Brazilian tertiary sector are still few. Recent official studies extrapolate energy conservation figures to provide estimations. In this work, a techno-economic bottom-up model is applied to simulate long-term electricity consumption of the Brazilian tertiary sector under four energy efficiency scenarios. The approach considers drivers of the tertiary consumption and diffusion of energy services in the modeling. The concept of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) is used to model individual options that improve energy services. The model is validated considering observed tertiary consumption by region. Considering the proposed EEMs, the results show that lighting plays an important role on energy saving when EEMs diffuse autonomously. Considering cost-effectiveness, ventilation & air-conditioning contributes most to energy savings. This work shows that, despite data unavailability, it is possible to build a consistent model for Brazilian tertiary sector by adjusting model parameters.