Resilience in the German natural gas network: Modelling approach for a high-resolution natural gas system

The German “Energiewende” aims at fostering a de-carbonisation of the entire energy system. In the electricity sector, a shift from traditionally nuclear and coal-based production towards renewable energies and lower carbon intensive gas power plants can be expected. Additionally, heat production from gas fuels will play a more dominant role. This results in a stronger dependence of the electrical power and heat sector on a reliable and secure operation of the underlying natural gas (NG) provision infrastructure. Growing uncertainties in the electricity and NG systems have in and of themselves been widely analysed. With this paper, we question how uncertainties in power and heat production development compromise the NG supply and thereby endanger energy security. We introduce a NG pipeline model with a detailed grid representation of northeast Germany. We utilise two representative days to model the NG demand differentiated by heat, industry and power sector consumption. Using a cost minimisation approach, we investigate possible congestions in the gas grid to assess if and to what extent NG pipelines can be seen as a crucial bottleneck for future energy security. Our results show the resilience of the NG system during a scenario of a MILD winter day. However, simultaneous NG demand peaks in the heat and power sector in the COLD scenario might lead to congestions in some regions.