Model for evaluation of transport energy needs of alternative development scenarios on regional scale

Energy consumption of personal transportation is not only a question of real-time “smart solutions” (e.g. smart parking), but also an important topic for smart governance on the regional scale. Modelling the transport energy consumption and resilience of alternative spatial development scenarios can play an important role in planning and policy formulation of a district. The model presented in this paper provides district planning offices with a practical and relatively easy-to-use scenario evaluation tool. It is based on two components — a transport model based on a doubly-constrained spatial interaction model with modal split and a model for evaluation of energy consumption and vulnerability. The evaluation component includes evaluation of average energy consumption, evaluation of spatial impacts caused by changes in spatial friction due to increasing fuel costs and the simulation of sudden energy supply disruption and price turbulences.