WiP Abstract: Diagnostics and Prognostics Using Temporal Causal Models for Cyber Physical Energy Systems

Reliable operation of cyber-physical systems such as power transmission and distribution systems is crtiical for the seamless functioning of a vibrant economy. These systems consist of tightly coupled physical (energy sources, transmission and distribution lines, and loads) and computational components (protection devices, energy management systems, etc.). The protection devices such as distance relays help in preventing failure propagation by isolating faulty physical components. However, these devices rely on hard thresholds and local information, often ignoring system-level effects introduced by the distributed control algorithms. This leads to scenarios wherein a local mitigation in a subsytem could trigger a larger fault cascade, possibly resulting in a blackout.Efficient models and tools that curtail such systematic failures by performing fault diagnosis and prognosis are therefore necessary.