On Variability of Renewable Energy and Online Power Allocation

As electric power system operators shift from conventional energy to renewable energy sources, power distribution systems will experience increasing fluctuations in supply. These fluctuations present the need to not only design online decentralized power allocation algorithms, but also characterize how effective they are given fast-changing consumer demand and generation. In this paper, we present an online decentralized dual descent (OD3) power allocation algorithm and determine (in the worst case) how much of observed social welfare can be explained by fluctuations in generation capacity and consumer demand. Convergence properties and performance guarantees of the OD3 algorithm are analyzed by characterizing the difference between the online decision and the optimal decision. We demonstrate validity and accuracy of the theoretical results in the paper through numerical experiments using real power generation data.