Causality analysis between climatic factors and dengue fever using the Granger causality

Dengue is a mosquito-bome tropical disease caused by one of the four serotypes of dengue virus. There are about 2,5 billion people living in endemic areas. The potential influence of environmental and climatic factors on the transmission of mosquito-bome diseases are expected in many situations but the exact real influences of climatic variables remain uncertain in most of the cases. In the present study, we applied the Granger causality to analyze the relation between climatic variables and the monthly incidences of dengue syndromes in Vietnam for 64 provinces from 1994 to 2010. The experimental results shows a close relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence in each province and their neighbourhoods.