Policy Analysis for the diffusion of Natural Gas Vehicles: The Colombian Case

In this paper we analyze the diffusion of natural gas for transportation in a market, in order to understand the factors that affect its adoption and evaluate several policies to enhance the diffusion speed in the Colombian market. We developed a simulation model to represent a market composed by individuals who could potentially adopt the natural gas for transportation, according to a pool of strategies implemented by organizations and government. Those strategies are directed to decrease the price of technology as well as the fuel for the adopters, and increase the amount of fuel stations. Having discussed the results, we conclude that the mechanisms aimed to increase supply stations have the greatest impact on the use of natural gas for transportation. Furthermore, if current policies are maintained, the dissemination of this fuel in Colombian territory will be worth around 16% by 2035, much less than desired by organizations and government.