Substation reliability evaluation with dependent outages using Bayesian networks

This paper presents an application of the Bayesian networks (BN) to substation reliability analysis. First part of the paper describes BN used to construct simple nodes, second shows the methodology used in constructing models of complex systems. A new model to represent dependent outages is introduced in the paper with a discussion how to avoid cycles when creating network models. A combination of path analysis with the Bayesian networks to enhance the construction of the latter is also presented.