Near real-life pilot testing of real-time probabilistic reliability assessments

This paper introduces a probabilistic reliability management approach and describes a pilot test planned by the Icelandic transmission system operator, Landsnet, in early 2017, as part of the EU GARPUR project. The pilot test will assess the viability of the approach and criteria proposed by GARPUR, in the context of real-time system operation. The mathematical formulation of reliability assessment being studied in the pilot test and the required algorithms are outlined. Data and tools needed for the pilot test are detailed, identifying the required assumptions and simplifications where existing data and tools are lacking. Finally, the preliminary methodology of the pilot test is described, followed by a discussion of the expected value of the pilot test. It is anticipated that the pilot test will provide insights into data and modelling needs for the implementation of probabilistic risk management approaches and criteria in transmission system operation.