Failure probability model of transmission and transformation equipment for risk assessment

The reliability analysis of transmission and transformation equipment is the key to the risk assessment of power system. Based on internal and external mechanism which will lead to failure, this paper proposes Ageing-Load-Health-Weather-PHM (ALHW-PHM), which is applicable to characterize the failure probability. The model adopts temperature-based aging model as the baseline hazard function, and utilizes health status, weather condition, and load rate as covariates in the link function. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the model's parameters. This model, which comprehensively considers the influence of risk factors such as thermal aging process, load rate, health status and weather condition, can provide theoretical basis for risk assessment and has a good application prospect.