Agriculture flood risk assessment based on information diffusion

The traditional flood risk analysis methods based on probability and statistics have limitations in terms of availability of samples. Information diffusion is a risk analysis method for fuzzy analysis of data, which is used to make up for the lack of sample information. In this work, we established a flood disaster index, and assessed the flood risk situation in 18 cities in Henan province, China. The results showed that Zhumadian city has the highest probability of flood risk among all types of risk degrees, and some other cities, such as Jiaozuo, face high risk in case of mild floods, but low risk in case of severe floods. Generally, the northwestern areas of Henan face lower risk than the southeastern areas. Our research would provide useful decision-making information for the disaster and emergency management departments. It will also prove useful for the insurance companies in determining the agricultural disaster insurance rates.