Operational risk assessment of distribution network with consideration of PV output uncertainties

As a large amount of photovoltaics integrating into distribution system, uncertainties of PV output have significant impacts on system operation. This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework for distribution network with high penetration of PVs. With consideration of uncertainties, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model is developed to perform probabilistic forecasting on PV power productions. The impacts of PV outputs on system operation are measured by thermal and voltage severity indices. Operational risk indices are then calculated by multiplying the probabilities of PV outputs with the thermal and voltage severity indices. Case studies on an IEEE 53-bus test system validate the feasibility of the proposed framework that can help system operators quantify operational risk on distribution network with consideration of PV output uncertainties.