An independent cost and schedule estimate process for NASA science projects

As a result of policy changes in 2009, NASA Headquarters mandated that projects must be budgeted using probabilistic cost and schedule estimating. As a response to this requirement, NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD) asked The Aerospace Corporation to use their estimating methodology to assess missions at project milestones. This paper describes the cost and schedule estimate processes used by Aerospace at KDP-C, when the agency commitments are established. Key unique features will be described including the use of multiple cost estimates for all WBS elements and an emphasis on analogy-based estimates for both cost and schedule. A comparison of the estimates with the as-launched development costs and schedules for 14 projects with launch dates from 2007 to 2013 will also be presented.