Using Velocity, Acceleration, and Jerk to Manage Agile Schedule Risk

Stable velocity is paramount for agile planning and builds trust with stakeholders. What metric represents agile stability? Agile processes establish the principle the schedule is fixed and scope changes. Agile velocity is well defined. Velocity is how much technical scope a team of people can produce over a period of time. It ties the technical scope to the schedule. This research continues to develop the concept that a stable velocity is an important factor in the change management process and risk management process. Specifically, stable velocity can help prevent a chaotic relationship with the customer. If the velocity is stable from sprint to sprint, it means planning and the execution is well aligned. This research uses past data from software agile development projects to investigate whether a metric for change in technical scope provides a leading indicator for schedule risk. Specifically, this paper studies agile velocity and proposes two physics concepts derived from velocity, as new agile metrics: agile acceleration and agile jerk. This paper identifies agile acceleration as a trigger for change and agile jerk as an indicator for stability of a release. The process to incorporate the metrics into agile risk management is provided. This research is relevant to persons who participate and manage Agile development projects. This research can be used to understand potential schedule risk/opportunity associated with unfinished work returning to the product backlog for later planning.