Integrated modeling of conflict and energy

The present paper summarizes the integration of two models, an energy security model and a national stability (conflict) model. The Energy Security Model uses system dynamics to represent national interactions in global markets for oil and natural gas. The Conflict Model employs multiscale agent-based modeling to represent international, national and subnational actors that must address complex scenarios in international relations. While this is a work in progress, the models are being integrated in order to support model interaction. So, instability in a major oil producing country can restrict global oil supplies and increase prices. Similarly, a fall in oil price might weaken a nation that is heavily dependent on oil revenue for stability. This overview provides an informative description of two alternate methods used to integrate two substantively distinct models.