Estimation of the future demand for natural gas in road transport in Poland

The aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use of natural gas in cars in Poland. On the basis of the available data in the literature characterizing the number of vehicles using the following criteria: age of the vehicle, engine capacity, car classification, the type of fuel used, curb weight. An average consumption of original fuel and gas was determined on the basis of an econometric model, which was developed specifically for this purpose and concluded from the data declared by the vehicle owners. Operating costs of the vehicle powered by the original fuel and natural gas were estimated based on a developed stochastic simulation model, which uses random vehicle parameters drawn from the Monte Carlo method. Vehicle parameters are simulated in such way that the resulting set of vehicles matches actual structure of passenger cars segment in Poland. Thus, the estimated costs, including capital expenditures necessary for the conversion to gas fuel (purchase and installation of a gas system and tanks) allow to perform an assessment of the economic use of the dual fuel vehicles. Moreover, this allows to compare these assessments. On this basis, it will be possible to choose more attractive settings and at the same time estimate an annual fuel consumption if the gas powered vehicle was chosen. These steps were repeated for 17 303 vehicles and the annual natural gas cosumption of the vehicles were summed and multiplied by thousand. This enabled to determine the potential demand for natural gas necessary to power the cars in Poland.