Knowledge accumulation and value of inventions

A challenging task in technology management is the early identification of valuable inventions. Techniques that attempt to do so using patent indicators find that the predictions based on one indicator often do not agree with the predictions made with other indicators. Focusing on technological value, we propose a new metric based upon the concept of knowledge accumulation. Knowledge accumulation accounts for the background knowledge preceding the invention. Prior knowledge underlying an invention should be indicative of technical experience in the sector, which has led to solutions to various technological problems that grow the body of knowledge relevant to the invention. Hence knowledge accumulation may be a suitable indicator of the maturity of the knowledge that contributes to the specific invention. Using a composite patent value and multiple generation citation networks, we compare knowledge accumulation in patents for inventions in the energy harvesting sector over a 100-year observation period. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the composite patent value and knowledge accumulation. As the analysis considered both patent applications and granted patents, the results imply that the metric can be used to predict the technological value of technologies that have not yet been patented.