Risk-based probabilistic approach to estimate power system security in the Sicilian context

The quality of the transmission service, in Italy, is managed by the TSO. Although the transmission network is meshed, it often happens a disconnection of some users (cabins processing business distributor or customers AT) due to a fault. The Authority issued the well-defined guidelines that regulate payments and premiums which the TSO is subject. The outages may occur due to events occurring at atypical structure of the network, or in areas normally fed in radial mode. To date, in Italy, there is no risk analysis based on probabilistic considerations taken from historical data in: this article presents a platform able to estimate the risk, taking into account the directives of the Authority. By consulting this platform in the planning stage of a unavailability, the TSO will be aware of the risk and it can decide whether to take corrective action and / or preventive actions to reduce it. In addition, the proposed study, is the basis of the probabilistic assessment of the safety of the electrical system.