Modelling HFMD epidemic with periodic infection rate based on data analysis

In this paper, we formulate a kind of SIS-type Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD) model in a short time interval (no more than ten years), in which we sufficiently consider the characteristics of seasonal variation and use periodic infection rate β(t) to describe it. Based on the available data of HFMD in china which is released monthly by Chinese Ministry of Health from 2009 to 2014(see the appendix), we fit out a rather reasonable period infection function between the susceptibles and the infectives. According to our model, we can predict and control the future development of HFMD in china.