Early Evolution of LOLP: Evaluating Generating Capacity Requirements [History]

This article focuses on the early application of probability methods in the evaluation of generating capacity adequacy and reserve capacity requirements in an electric power system. The primary objective is to illustrate the evolution of the loss of load probability (LOLP) from a concept to a numerical system index that has been widely accepted as a system standard for over 50 years. The observations in this article are supported by the "Bibliography on Application of Probability Methods in the Evaluation of Generating Capacity Requirements," presented by Roy Billinton at the IEEE Winter Power Meeting in New York, New York, 30 January-4 February 1966 and designated as Conference Paper No. 31 CP 66-62.