Workload-based congestion prediction

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) currently uses the Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) to perform congestion prediction, a key traffic management function that is needed to ensure the safe and efficient flow of traffic through the National Airspace System (NAS). TFMS uses expected future traffic volume to predict congestion. In researching ways to improve congestion prediction, The MITRE Corporation's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) developed a prototype workload-based en route congestion prediction model. The model, which considers future traffic volume and complexity in predicting workload and congestion, is expected to be a more accurate predictor of congestion than TFMS. This paper describes the predictive workload model, how workload is used to predict congestion, and how output from the model could be used to inform congestion resolution.